As California Chrome tries to become the first Triple Crown winner in 36 years, there are a number of factors going both for and against him claiming the title.
Roughly 2.30 after the gates open on the Belmont Stakes late Saturday afternoon, one of two things will have happened. Either California Chrome, winner of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, will have claimed his place in horse racing history by becoming the 12th winner of the US Triple Crown – or he will have gone down in history as the 12th horse since Affirmed in 1978 to have won the first two legs of the classic series, only to have gone down in defeat in the grueling “Test of a Champion.”
So what are the chances of either scenario playing out? The pros for ‘Chrome winning the Crown are many. Despite the fact his sire and dam only won four races in 28 starts between them – and all of those in sprints of a mile or less – he has clearly outrun his pedigree. He’s as close to a “push-button” horse as you’ll find, always breaking well from the gate, easily stalking the pace (no matter what that pace is), and showing an uncanny ability to kick away from the field when asked. He goes as fast as needed to comfortably win, and he has yet to be passed by another horse after they cross the wire.
The cons? The most obvious is that winning three races in five weeks is a lot to ask from any horse, and fatigue could be a factor when they make the turn at Belmont into that last, long quarter-mile . Although he has previously beaten half the Belmont Stakes field, most of the other horses are coming into the race fresh, having been pointed to the Belmont for the past month. All the way back to Sir Barton in 1919, no horse has won the Belmont against 10 challengers as ‘Chrome will have to do. And despite the fact jockey Victor Espinoza has done everything right so far, it’s hard to ignore the fact he’s a paltry 2-for-67 riding at Belmont Park.
The field is set for the $1 million Haskell, where Nyquist will be trying to re-stake his claim as the top three-year-old in the country.
On Sunday at Monmouth Park, the featured race is the $300,000 United Nations Stakes. Scheduled to be run at a mile and three-eighths on the turf, the Grade 1 event has drawn a field of ten colts and geldings.
On Sunday at Monmouth Park, the featured race is the $150,000 Pegasus Stakes, a key prep race for the Haskell Invitational (G1). The Grade 3 event will be contested at a mile and a sixteenth and has drawn a field of seven three-year-olds.
With five grade 1 races and a grade 2, the undercard for the June 11 Belmont stakes could be the best single day of racing on the calendar outside of the Breeders’ Cup.
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