The Pros And Cons For California Chrome's Triple Crown Bid

Roughly 2.30 after the gates open on the Belmont Stakes late Saturday afternoon, one of two things will have happened. Either California Chrome, winner of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, will have claimed his place in horse racing history by becoming the 12th winner of the US Triple Crown – or he will have gone down in history as the 12th horse since Affirmed in 1978 to have won the first two legs of the classic series, only to have gone down in defeat in the grueling “Test of a Champion.”

Why California Chrome will win the Triple Crown

So what are the chances of either scenario playing out? The pros for ‘Chrome winning the Crown are many. Despite the fact his sire and dam only won four races in 28 starts between them – and all of those in sprints of a mile or less – he has clearly outrun his pedigree. He’s as close to a “push-button” horse as you’ll find, always breaking well from the gate, easily stalking the pace (no matter what that pace is), and showing an uncanny ability to kick away from the field when asked. He goes as fast as needed to comfortably win, and he has yet to be passed by another horse after they cross the wire.

Why California Chrome will lose the Triple Crown

The cons? The most obvious is that winning three races in five weeks is a lot to ask from any horse, and fatigue could be a factor when they make the turn at Belmont into that last, long quarter-mile . Although he has previously beaten half the Belmont Stakes field, most of the other horses are coming into the race fresh, having been pointed to the Belmont for the past month. All the way back to Sir Barton in 1919, no horse has won the Belmont against 10 challengers as ‘Chrome will have to do. And despite the fact jockey Victor Espinoza has done everything right so far, it’s hard to ignore the fact he’s a paltry 2-for-67 riding at Belmont Park.