KY Derby Picture Still Fuzzy After Big Stakes Weekend

For starters, two of the three final major preps - the Wood and Santa Anita Derby - were run over a sloppy track. The two winners of those races, Exaggerator (Santa Anita Derb) and Outwork (Wood Memorial), are nice horses and well-deserving of moving on to Churchill Downs for the big race, but it's tough to know exactly how impressive either colt was in victory. Exaggerator, who also won the Delta Jackpot over a sloppy track, likely used the off-going to move forward while turning the tables on Danzing Candy and Mor Spirit, both of whom finished ahead of him in the San Felipe. The lightly-raced outwork was not visually impressive, but was plenty gutsy holding off 81-1 shot Trojan Nation. In short, neither Outwork nor Exaggerator left the logical handicapper with much clue about either's true ability. Unless the skies open up again on the first Saturday in May, it will be difficult to take much more than a flier on either colt. 

Brody's Cause with pluses and minuses 

Then there's Brody's Cause, whose Blue Grass win was the Dale Romans trainee's second grade 1 victory. The other - The Breeders' Cup Futurity - also came at Keeneland. The colt is clearly comfortable at Keeneland, but it should also be noted that he broke his maiden at a mile on the Churchill downs dirt. His ability to close from off the pace fits the profile of many a successful Derby horse, but it will be worth noting the speed figure Brody's Cause earns for winning the Blue Grass. Coming into the race, the son of Giant's Causeway had never recorded a Beyer higher than 84 on fast dirt.

My Man Sam interesting longshot

The second-place finisher in the Blue Grass, My Man Sam, ran another big race in just his fourth career start. Trained by Chad Brown, this colt has a big, fluid stride and may just need better racing luck to find the winner's circle. He may not be ready to take on horse's like Nyquist at this point in his career, but My Man Sam is one to include in the exotics on Derby Day at a big price. He'll be rolling late and should appreciate the mile and a quarter.